Max the RRSP, or borrow to invest?
One annual budget, two paths to 65. This calculator prices in loan interest, fund fees, the tax drag on a non-registered account, and market volatility — including what happens when markets fall. It does not assume borrowing wins; under plenty of assumptions it will tell you plainly that it does not.
After-tax income 65–85: $162,980 without the loan, $165,750 with it. Nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted.
Your portfolio has to clear 4.11% net of fees
Mind the gap between those two numbers. After the interest deduction the loan only costs 3.16%, which sounds cheap — but the money lands in a non-registered account that pays tax on distributions every year and capital-gains tax on the way out, while the same money inside an RRSP compounds untaxed. That leak lifts the real hurdle to 4.11% net, which means 6.61% gross at your fee level.
Each costs $30,000 a year out of pocket
The whole budget goes into the RRSP. The refund is reinvested. No debt.
- RRSP per year
- $30,000
- Loan
- —
- Interest per year
- —
- Refund reinvested
- $12,600
Loan interest is paid out of the budget; whatever is left goes to the RRSP.
- RRSP per year
- $19,100
- Loan
- $200,000
- Interest per year
- $10,900
- Refund reinvested
- $12,600
The RRSP stays full and the refund pays the loan interest.
- RRSP per year
- $30,000
- Loan
- $200,000
- Interest per year
- $10,900
- Refund reinvested
- $6,278
Across 1,500 simulations, borrowing wins 38% of the time
This is the part leverage math usually skips: the outcome is settled by the compound return, not the average. You entered a 7.00% average, but at 15% volatility the median compound return is 6.06%. Along the way, the account sits below the loan balance at some point in 74% of paths — a forced sale if the loan is margin-callable, and merely an ugly statement if it is a 100% no-margin-call facility.
Both plans to retirement
- RRSP only
- Loan + full RRSP
Pre-tax net worth with the loan balance already deducted. The tax difference shows up in the after-tax income above.
Waiting 10 years costs $1,384
The cost of waiting is not the lost years as such — it is that the borrowed capital simply is not in the market during them. Wait 10 years and the loan principal compounds for 10 fewer. The flip side is real too: if those years are bad ones, waiting dodged them. Read this next to the odds panel — starting earlier magnifies the outcome, not the certainty of it.
Two paths, side by side
Enter a plan on each side; every other assumption is inherited from above. The annual out-of-pocket cost of each side is shown, because if one side spends more it ought to end up with more — that is not an insight.
| Plan one | Plan two | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual cost after refund | $17,400 | $17,385 | -$15 |
| Tax saved per year | $12,600 | $12,589 | -$11 |
| After-tax net worth at 65 | $1,247,609 | $1,246,554 | -$1,055 |
| Yearly income 65–85 | $108,862 | $111,682 | +$2,820 |
| After-tax estate at 85 | $645,884 | $713,057 | +$67,173 |
A positive difference favours plan two. The estate row assumes the retirement spending set above, with tax settled in the year of death.
Same average, different order
| Scenario | RRSP only | Loan + RRSP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steady return, every year | $162,980 | $165,750 | +$2,769 |
| Market drops 35% in year one | $162,980 | $149,636 | -$13,344 |
| Ten flat years, then it recovers | $204,990 | $195,182 | -$9,808 |
| Market drops 40% just before retirement | $126,347 | $127,993 | +$1,647 |
| A long grind: 3% below plan, every year | $115,318 | $103,158 | -$12,159 |
The first four land near the long-run average you entered and differ only in when the losses arrive; the last one is simply a worse market. Leverage is unusually order-sensitive — an early drawdown hurts most, because the interest bill arrives in full while the capital has shrunk.
How this calculator works
Most investment-loan illustrations do one thing: compare the after-tax interest cost against an expected return and call the spread your profit. That leaves out three things, and those three things decide the outcome.
First, opportunity cost. Borrowed money lands in a non-registered account, while the same budget could have gone into an RRSP where it compounds untaxed. The non-registered account pays tax on distributions every year and capital-gains tax on the way out. So the right comparison is not against zero, it is against what that money would have become inside the RRSP. This calculator forces all three plans to cost the same out of pocket each year, which is what makes the comparison honest.
Second, fees. Fees come straight off the return while the interest bill stays fixed, so every extra percentage point of MER lifts the gross return you need by a full point. Fees are not a rounding error in a leveraged plan — they are the largest single variable, and the only one entirely within your control.
Third, volatility. Leverage is settled by the compound return, not the arithmetic average, and the gap between them widens with volatility. That is why this page runs thousands of random paths and reports odds instead of drawing one smooth curve — a smooth curve makes it look like arithmetic when it is a distribution.
Tax is computed on federal and provincial brackets, year by year through retirement, including RRIF minimum withdrawals and OAS clawback, with capital gains at the 50% inclusion rate. Everything is in nominal dollars with no inflation adjustment — a dollar 30 years out is not today's dollar, and the headline numbers should be read with that in mind.
Common questions
Is an investment loan better than maxing out my RRSP?
It depends on one number: what your portfolio compounds at after fund fees. Under this page's default assumptions the portfolio has to clear about 4.11% a year net of fees before borrowing beats putting the same money into an RRSP. A 5.45% loan only costs 3.16% after the interest deduction, but a non-registered account pays tax on distributions every year and capital-gains tax on the way out, and that drag lifts the hurdle by roughly a percentage point.
Is investment loan interest tax deductible in Canada?
Interest on money borrowed to earn investment income is generally deductible in Canada. What matters is that the funds can be traced to an income-earning purpose and the account genuinely produces taxable income. If the fund keeps paying return of capital, CRA can grind down the deductible portion of the principal. Confirm the details with a licensed advisor and your accountant.
How much do fund fees change the answer?
They decide it. Fees come straight off the return while the loan interest stays fixed, so every extra 1% of MER raises the gross return you need by 1%. At the default 2.50% MER the portfolio needs 6.61% gross to break even; drop the MER to 1% and the hurdle falls to roughly 5%. Negotiating the fee down matters more than picking the fund.
What happens if the market falls?
The loan balance does not fall with it. Under the default assumptions this page's simulation puts the chance of the account sitting below the loan balance at some point over the projection at roughly 74%. With a margin-callable loan that can force a sale at the bottom; with a 100% no-margin-call loan it is only an ugly statement you have to be able to live with. It is the first question to ask about any loan product.
Why can a 7% average return still lose money?
Because leverage is settled by the compound return, not the average. The more volatile the portfolio, the further the compound return sits below the average. At a 7% average with 15% volatility, the median compound return is only about 6.06%. The brochure quotes the average; your account grows at the compound number.
Does borrowing more improve the odds?
No. Loan size scales how much you win or lose, not how often you win — that is set by the spread between your net-of-fee return and the after-tax cost of the loan. Size the loan to the paper loss you can live through, not to the gain you would like.
For education and illustration only. Not investment, tax or legal advice, and not a promise or forecast of any return. Built on Canadian federal and provincial brackets without indexation, excluding CPP/EI contributions, AMT, provincial surtaxes and health premiums; retirement income counts only CPP and OAS. Leverage magnifies losses as well as gains, and the loan principal is repayable regardless of how the investment performs. Suitability depends on your full financial picture and risk tolerance — discuss it with a licensed advisor before acting.